It’s wholly unfair to define the first five shows of Phish’s tour as a warm-up for the Baker’s Dozen run that looms in just a few hours, but if you’re looking for a preview of what could be coming over the next 13 shows, look no further than what occurred over the last five. 

While the debate rages on as to whether or not the band will repeat a single song over the course of the run, they tipped their hand slightly with these first batch of shows. It appears they will head into tonight looking to go thirteen nights without repeating a song. A feat that on the surface sounds simple with some planning (Phish has so many songs, right?) but will be incredibly historic and equally as difficult. But it is possible and they’ve shown some of the strategy involved. 

Personally, I’ve spent the better part of the last few months laughing at the notion they’d try for thirteen clean sheets in a row. But as Chicago turned into Dayton and Pittsburgh, it became evident that this intends to be their gameplan. While the First Five (as I’m now dubbing them) may have seemed inconsequential, these could be some of the most important shows played ahead of one of the most unimaginable moments in Phish’s storied history. We’ve told you about the crazy Absolute Zero theory but let’s dig a little bit deeper into these first few shows to find out how Phish accomplishes their goal. 

Debuts 

This one seems obvious, but what do they need to fill thirteen nights of music? Yes, songs. It’d be somewhat easy for Phish to load up each show with an astronomical amount of improv but that doesn’t feel sustainable over thirteen nights. Ultimately they’ll need to stack the deck with more material to complement just how deep they’re going to have to dig into their catalog to pull it off. 

And they’ve done just that. Ten debuts in total (11 if you include the mega-bustout of “Mr. Completely”) in the First Five, including a focused effort to dig into the respective solo catalogs of Trey Anastasio and Mike Gordon. That number may seem small, but that is essentially an entire first set they added to their repertoire in five shows. One set down, 25 to go. 

The strategy here is not for the first five shows, but rather for the back nine (or back eight) of the run that’ll find them running low on options. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a number of debuts during the first couple of shows this weekend as well. This is truly a marathon, not a sprint. More debuts just means you can stash other songs at the end of the run. 

Improv

On top of being awesome, some of the improv we’ve seen from Phish thus far is very important. The 27-minute “Simple” and 21-minute “Carini” in Chicago were followed up by a 23-minute excursion in Dayton’s “Down with Disease” and of course, “Mr. Completely” in Pittsburgh. Four shows, four 20+ minute jams which is the first time that’s happened in quite a while. 

Phish has played 20+ minute jams at 4 consecutive shows. Last time that happened: 7/29/03 – 8/3/03.
— Guy Forget (@GuyForgetOPT) July 20, 2017

Anomaly, it is not. Phish has kept their second sets (excluding opening night in Chicago) to 6-7 songs, which extrapolated to 13 nights equates to around 85-90 songs leaving plenty of options for longer first sets. This is what they’ll have to do in order to avoid backing themselves into a corner come nights 10-13, or be relegated to covering all of Appetite for Destruction or something. Not necessarily saying that an earth-shattering jam is required every night (although that would be great) but stringing together a heavy chunk of improv especially in those second sets will alleviate some pressure. 

It’s simple math. Longer jams means less songs and less songs on one night means more options for the following nights. Around and around we go. 

Not only does Phish want to make it to the end with song options but they also, obviously, want the shows to still be entertaining. I imagine they’ll keep a few heavy-hitters stashed away for the later shows while peppering in ultra-rare songs like “NO2,” “Guy Forget,” “Quadrophonic Toppling” and the like to really flesh out some of those jammier second sets. 

There is no doubt about it: This is Phish’s grand experiment. For all they’ve done in 30 years, this will be one of the most intimate and thorough looks at the band’s entire catalog along with their ability to string together a run of shows.

Or, they’ll just go ahead and hit us with a second “Backwards Down the Number Line” on the sixth night and all of this will be irrelevant. Either way, these next thirteen nights will be a fascinating study in Phish, so buckle up.